I wonder what the headline will be on November 5th. It's shaping up to be a Democratic rout. Playing with the map at this other site, I selected the states where Obama has a 10% or greater lead in polling, and that alone gets him 264 electoral votes to McCain's similarly-derived 171. It takes 270.
Assuming the candidates with 10% or greater leads go on to win, McCain must have the following states to win (in order of electoral votes):
Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, West Virginia
plus one of:
Montana, North Dakota
[10/21: The McCain camp is giving up on Colorado (as well as Iowa and New Mexico, where they're not close), and instead they are going all-out for Pennsylvania, where Obama currently enjoys a twelve-point lead. It's a long shot, but if they get it, it could change everything.]
Obama is leading, by a little or a fair bit, in seven of these states. Unless he is revealed to have eaten babies in Ayers' living room, or Biden is demonstrated to be an android sent from the Planet Xygglar to monitor us, expect to see Obama in the White House next year. And hooray for that.
The election is still two long weeks away, so let's be very careful. Also, people might be tempted not to vote, because of either the advance polls or what will have already transpired on election night before their own states' polls close. And we all remember how Dewey "defeated" Truman.
Not only is the Republican brand toxic (which I lament to some extent because Abraham Lincoln, generally acknowledged to be one of the finest leaders of men that ever lived, was a Republican), but there are implications that go beyond just the presidency: in some states, voters can vote a straight ticket and with one beep or ker-chunk just vote Democratic or Republican (or, in theory, Green or Libertarian or Constitution or Independence, etc..) all the way from President to Dog-Catcher. In some states, the candidates for President are included in the straight-ticket option, in others, the candidates for President must be voted for separately.
I've only been to the United States twice, and despite having one USAmerican coworker, I can hardly be said to have my finger on the pulse of their nation (or anything, for that matter). But from what I'm reading, it's shaping up to be a tragic night for Republicans. Maybe not Kim Campbell 1993 bad, but it'll be down there. OK, so Joe the
Don't worry, they're keeping Palin from the media, in both the usual sense and the juror sense.
Halifax mayoral race:
Let's give a cheer for taxi-driver David Boyd for having made this election a little more interesting.
I'm glad Peter Kelly is coming back. I like where the city is going transit-wise and I hope the service improvements continue. I guess I'm kind of a single-issue voter at the moment. =)
Update: Someone titled this moving clip of Powell's endorsement "Nail in the Coffin." It's appropriate in two ways - you'll want to see this.